March 2022 Toronto and York Region Real Estate Market Report

The real estate market remains tight for home buyers, although a comparison of sales numbers of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) statistics for all the GTA from March 2022 to February 2022 provides some promising data for buyers, at least on the surface. The average selling price in the GTA was down (-3%), new listings were up (+42%), and the number of homes sold was down (-30%). These numbers could be foreshadowing a slowing of the market, which many people have reported anecdotally.

Unfortunately, unless housing supply is addressed in a consistent manner going forward when comparing years rather than months, Toronto will continue to face double-digit price increases. The Ontario Real Estate Affordability Task Force reported in January that Ontario will need 3.5 million new homes over the next decade or about 350,000 a year. Currently, Ontario is adding 200,000 homes a year. Compounding this shortfall in housing is the fact that immigration levels are projected to increase to about 435,000 this year and more in the next couple of years. About 60% of immigrants will settle in the GTA.

March 2022 was still the third-best month, and the second-best quarter, for home sales on record. This could be because consumers know that interest rates are rising, and they are trying to get into the market at current rates. The 905 regions continued to see homes rise in value at a pace significantly higher than the City of Toronto, which suggests people are exiting the city in search of more affordable homes. The problem with that, however, is the 905 regions are becoming just as unaffordable as the 416. When I moved recently, my mover admitted almost all their moves were 905 destinations.

Year-over-Year stats: new listings are down again (-9% in Toronto and -16% in York Region), number of properties sold is also down (-22% in Toronto and -34% in York Region), days on market are down (-10 or 20% in Toronto and -10 or 10% in York region) AND the average selling price is UP (+20% in both Toronto and York Region).

The higher end of the market ($2,000,000+) saw a 19% increase in units sold over last year, according to TRREB.

Condominium apartment unit sales were down (-17% in Toronto and -18% in York Region) over last year, but up significantly (+71% in Toronto and +14% in York Region) over last month, a promising sign for condo sellers. The average selling price was also up (+20% in Toronto and +24% in York Region) over last year. York Region has significantly more townhouses than the City of Toronto. Sales of townhouses were down (-19%) over last year, but prices were up (+31%). 

We saw another .50% increase in interest rates in early April. That translates to $300 a month increase on a $1,200,000 mortgage.
Affordability is eroding.